Jacob DeGrom U10.5K’s vs. Boston Red Sox -115 (MGM):
One of the most exciting pitchers to ever grace this
long and historical game, DeGrom has continued his first ballot Hall
of Fame trajectory in 2021, as he sits at 2-1 with a 0.31 ERA and 50
strikeouts in 29 innings. We are running out of superlatives to say
about this guy at this point. Following up a complete game 15 strikeout shutout
vs. the Nationals, he squares off against the surprise 15-9 Boston Red
Sox at Citi Field.
DeGrom is on a torrid strikeout rate right now (15.5
K/9) as he has notched at least 14 punch outs in each of his last three
starts. Ordinarily, I love to hammer the strikeout overs on a handful
of power arms in the MLB, JD included. Tonight, is a trend bucking
switcharoo though. The New York Mets ace off a 109-pitch complete game
for starters leads me to believe he’s in for more of a 6 or 7 inning
type of outing to keep his much-needed arm fresh for a Mets team with
grand championship aspirations. The Red Sox as a team only fan 8.5
times per game on average, which is well behind the 10.5 plateau.
Additionally, they haven’t struck out over 10 times in a 9-inning game
since April 17th vs. the Chicago White Sox.
Tonight seems like a time as good as any to fade the
two-time Cy Young winner, as it’s not feasible to expect that insane K/9
to continue along with an absurd 10.5 strikeout total.
Red Sox + Mets U0.5 1st inning -135 (FanDuel):
Encore! As we continue to follow notable trends, we take
a look at one that has cashed an extraordinary 15 times out of its
last 20 when Jacob DeGrom is on the mound; a scoreless first inning.
First off, we see a dominant pitcher like JD, who keeps
base runners (0.552 WHIP) and long balls (0.6 HR/9) to a minimum,
which is imperative. Despite a lethal Red Sox offense, they have only
broken through in the first inning three times in their last 11
outings. Factor in the best pitcher in baseball on a hot white-hot run
opposing them, odds of them getting a run on the board early are not
in their favor.
Next, we check out the wishy washy yet-to-get-going Mets
offense. Like the Red Sox, New York hasn’t been much of a first inning
scoring machine lately as they have only accounted for early runs in
two of their last 10 contests. The biggest question is Boston starter
Nick Pivetta. While he’s been solid in ’21, he’s no DeGrom and far
from a sure thing.
Viewing stats and trends, the first inning to go
scoreless is a strong bet, especially when you factor in the
salivating -135 value.
Tyler Glasnow O8.5K’s vs. Oakland Athletics -104 (FanDuel):
On a short list of one of the best young arms in the
game, Tyler Glasnow has all the makings of a future Cy Young winner.
Like DeGrom, Glasnow is a pitcher I circle on my calendar for an
opportunity to hammer the often-hitting strikeout over.
The Rays’ ace is off to a sharp start in 2021, but most
notably he has 46 punch outs in just 30.2 innings thus far. For our
purposes tonight, he squares off against a red-hot A’s team that still
manages to strikeout at just about nine times per contest. Oddly
enough, Glasnow is averaging nine K’s per start through his first five
outings of the young season. Additionally, he has at least nine
punch outs in three of his last four starts. The swing and miss numbers
are there for him to be a repeat offender. One issue with TG is he
runs into pitch count issues at times, but still manages to give at
least six innings (only 1 start less than 6 innings in ’21). With a
filthy 13.5 K/9, a typical Glasnow performance should edge this one
out for us.
Truly a bang bang play, but like I said, I usually give
the benefit of the doubt to the power arms like Glasnow; and at
amazing value, this is one you have to roll with.