Shane Bieber U8.5 K’s -155 (Draft Kings):
Where art thou, Shane Bieber? A Greek tragedy turn of
events has transformed the AUTOMATIC strikeout over pitcher into a
Bieber coming into the season was a penciled in double
digit punch out artist each time out. Since that fateful 5th inning in
Kansas City back on May 5, Bieber has been a shell of himself, mostly in
the K department. Aside from an outlier 12 strikeout outing against Detroit,
the reigning AL Cy Young winner has missed on every strikeout over
since that Royals game. Because he had been punching out 10-12 batters
every start until that point, sports books raised his total to 9.5
routinely. Now, bettors have seen that plateau drop to 8.5 regularly.
While Shane has had some typical strong performances, the strikeout
totals have not reflected in that. He definitely does not look like
the same untouchable ace we’ve grown accustomed to seeing.
Tonight’s opposition is the reeling St. Louis Cardinals,
losers of 5 straight. The Cards border the 8.5 strikeout total this
season, and in the midst of a grueling 17 game stretch, I would
ordinarily consider Bieber a slam dunk to notch at least 10 K’s in
That being said, Bieber Fever will have to start displaying consistent
performances before I feel confident jumping back on his overs. The
price is high, but it’s been the trend on a pitcher who is struggling
to recapture his magic. Let’s slightly lean under.
Chicago White Sox First 5 -142 (FanDuel):
The team littered with arguably the most young talent is
well on its way to continuing dominance well into the summer. The
Chicago White Sox not only hold the league’s best run differential
(+85) but possess the 4th best record in baseball at 36-23. That
aside, they happen to be by far the best first five team in the MLB.
As of today, they are an astounding 37-13-13 overall
this season, while also being 20-6-7 at home. Anyway you dice it,
they’ve been easily the best in the majors in 2021. Tonight, they
begin a tough series with a powerful Toronto Blue Jays lineup that can
make opposing pitchers’ quake in their boots, or in tonight’s starter
Carlos Rodon’s case, stirrups. With timely hitting and a deep lineup,
squaring off a much improved, but still shaky Robbie Ray, the offense
speaks for itself. As for Rodon, he has quietly built a case for AL Cy
Young through the first 2 months of the season to the tune of a 1.98
earned run average and 13.2 K/9, along with a 6-2-1 first five record
across nine starts so far.
While Ray has finally appeared to capture the potential
the Diamondbacks had hoped for in Toronto, it’s still too early to buy
him as a command genius. Facing a relentless White Sox lineup, it’s
imperative to not make mistakes because hitters can attack one after
the next like a carousel. With 14 walks in 58 innings,
the hard throwing left hander still has the capacity to have the
potential to lose control of those potent pitches. Tuesday will be his
toughest test as a Blue Jay.
The Blue Jays offense is one to be feared, and with the
improvement of Ray, this is a bang bang play. Ultimately, I must side
with the team that has proven to be head and shoulders above everybody
else in the first half of ball games.
Tyler Glasnow O7.5K’s vs. Washington Nationals -126 (Draft Kings):
On a short list of one of the best young arms in the
game, Tyler Glasnow has all the makings of a future Cy Young winner.
Glasnow is a pitcher I circle on my calendar for an
opportunity to hammer the often-hitting strikeout over.
The Rays’ ace is firmly in contention for the AL Cy
Young Award through the early part of the 2021 season. Tuesday night,
he squares off against a wishy-washy Nationals team struggling to
compile consistent offense during a rough 3-7 stretch over their last
10 contests. Striking out about 8.5 times per game, Washington is
right on the cusp to be a victim of TG’s prop bet this evening.
Glasnow has only fallen short of eclipsing 8 punch outs once since
April 17th vs. the New York Yankees. One slight uphill battle is the
American League team being home, which surrenders a near automatic
punch out of opposing pitchers- in this case, Jon Lester. Averaging
between 6-7 innings pitched and and 8.75 strikeouts per outing over
his last 8 starts, TG should be given the nod and usual benefit of the
doubt to tip the scales in favor of an over performance. His absurd
12.4 K/9 only further solidifies his status as a pitcher that rarely
falls short of his expected punch out total.
At the value of laying only $126 bucks to win $100, over
7.5 K’s is a solid bet to back Mr. Glasnow this evening.