Gambling Guinea’s MLB Slate- 6/14:
After enjoying a delightful 8-3 total last week, I am looking forward to another week of identifying the best plays of the day. Without further ado, here we go!
Tyler Glasnow U8.5 K’s -112 (FanDuel):
White Sox F5 +108 (FanDuel):
An unstoppable force meets an immovable object. Baseball fans are blessed with a great Monday treat to begin their weeks; Tyler Glasnow and the red-hot Rays travel to the south side of Chicago to duel it up with the White Sox. Tonight is not only an intriguing matchup, and potential ALCS preview, but I’ll be throwing two plays for bettors to tail.
Glasnow has the ball tonight, so you know my calendar has been circled for this matchup. The fanboy in me is taking a back seat this evening with my predicted 2021 Cy Young winner in the name of objectivity. My adage, which I even alluded to last week with TG – give the benefit of the doubt to the power arms– is something I am fading. Despite struggling to arrive at this near 50/50 decision, I believe it is the correct one tonight. Aside from the obvious fact that the White Sox are the best first five team in the MLB, they tend to attack pitchers early. Given Glasnow has sometimes been known to randomly lose control in the first half of games, it could pose a threat for the pitch count later on. Out of the 5 starts TG has allowed 3 or more runs, he’s only hit his punch out over in 2 of them, which means 3 runs should be the goal for Chicago tonight. Additionally, Tyler is noticeably worse on the road- nearly every stat is a downgrade. Averaging less than 6 innings pitched and 7.2 strikeouts per road start, it’s enough of a reason for me to slightly lean under 8.5 K’s against one of the league’s best teams that averages about 8.5 strikeouts per game. By the way, even FanDuel was 50/50 about this play- both sides of 8.5 were stuck on -112.
Make that 39-13-13 for the well oiled first five White Sox machine this season. Furthermore, they trot out the best first half pitcher in the game thus far, Lance Lynn. Not too many people pegged Lynn to be in contention for the AL Cy Young award in 2021, but here we are. With a 7-1 record, 1.23 earned run average and 0.88 WHIP, it’s hard to ignore what the big righty has brought to this team. At 9-0-2 in the first five this year, Lynn is a worthwhile play to back tonight to deliver that 10th W of the season, even against Glasnow. While he is not the star TG is, Lance has been an unbelievably steady eddy to the point where getting PLUS MONEY on him seems generous. Of course, there is a chance Glasnow and the Rays come to town and wipe the floor with them as the favorite, but the value at +108 is worth a shot.
I have a feeling tonight Chicago is going to be all or nothing tonight, both offensively and defensively. They either beat the brakes off Glasnow and the Rays, or it gets done to them. Again, for the value, they are both strong options to tail on this Monday night.
Vladdy Guerrero Jr. O1.5 Total Bases EVEN (Pinnacle):
If you’re old enough to remember him in his prime, does anybody else get chills watching Vladdy Jr. play with the reminder of his father? Quickly living up to the hype and namesake, Toronto’s young super star is not only having an MVP type of season, but triple crown-esque.
Nobody in the American League has a better batting average or OPS, more home runs or RBI’s. The kid is truly a revelation. Although we have a long way to go before any awards are handed out, it’s amazing to witness the next generation of superstars this game has to offer. On a 4-game hitting streak and riding a .447 batting average in the month of June, Guerrero is getting even hotter (scary thought). Closing out the last game of a 4-game series with the Boston Red Sox, the Blue Jays face Nate Eovaldi tonight fresh off his 5-run shellacking against the Astros last Wednesday. Aside from the 500 pound elephant in the room with Vladdy Jr. being scorching hot, Eovaldi is allowing a robust .308 average to right handed hitters this season. Additionally, given the fact that Vladdy is hitting a ‘not so special’ .636 this series against the BoSox, there’s reason to believe he can eclipse either 2 singles or 1 extra base hit tonight.
All things being equal and at this EVEN MONEY VALUE, your honor… no objections!