Gambling Guinea’s MLB Slate- 6/16:
After a strong 2-1 on Monday, nothing tickled my fancy for the Tuesday slate. Looking at Wednesday’s plays, there’s a few things on the radar to back for a successful betting night. Let’s roll.
Athletics ML -121 (MGM):
Don’t look now, but the 5th best record in the MLB and 3rd in the American League belongs to the inspiration of Moneyball. The A’s, on a 5-game win streak, appear to be hitting their stride right before the All-Star break in the middle of July. Before heading to New York to battle it out with the Bronx Bombers, Oakland goes for the sweep on Wednesday against a quietly surging Angels squad.
Averaging 7 runs per game across their last 5 contests, Oakland appears to be in prime position to deliver another offensive showcase against Angels up and down starter, Griffin Canning. Aside from Canning’s unpredictability, he’s a slightly worse pitcher at home than on the road via his 5.25 ERA and .261 opponent batting average. Furthermore, the Angels as a road team only average about 4 runs per game compared to their 5.5 at home. While LA is on a 7-3 run in their last 10 outings, it’s more favorable to fade them against a scorching hot division rival who is hitting the cover off the ball.
Although A’s starter Cole Irvin is noticeably worse at home than on the road this year, the value at -121 is a favorable line given the fact that Oakland is scoring runs at a torrid pace recently.
Cubs+Mets F1 U0.5 Runs -148 (DK):
Guess what day it is?!? DeGrom day! Squaring off against the Chicago Cubs, the Mets welcome back the best pitcher in baseball after a brief breath holding moment last week against the San Diego Padres. While I normally would have gone on Degrom’s under strikeouts tonight due to the fact that I think he won’t be pitching more than 5 or 6 innings max, I decided to keep it simple and hammer the best DeGoat prop bet money can buy.
Did you know Jacob DeGrom’s record in having the entire first inning scoreless is 9-1 in 10 starts this season (17-5 in his last 22 starts dating back to 2020)? An almost automatic, quick, and sweaty bet, banking on no runs in the first frame is about as good as it gets with DeGrom. Factoring in the Mets’ tepid offense that has only plated 1 first inning run in their last 5 contests and JD’s dominance, it’s no wonder why this play hits at such a high clip.
While the value may seem high, it’s actually a pretty good price compared to other starts he makes when it could run into -165 and higher territory. It’s definitely a stressful bet to watch, but it’s usually a high percentage play.
Giants RL -1.5 +123 (DK):
The best team in the National League and 2nd best in the MLB? The 42-25 San Francisco Giants. The revelation that this team is San Fran looks firmly in the thick of things 10 weeks into the season with no prospects of fading any time soon. Wednesday night, the Giants play game 3 of a 4 game set with the division rival Arizona Diamondbacks.
6-4 in their last 10, SF remains atop the competitive NL West as the San Diego Padres and LA Dodgers nip at their heels. With a strong 20-9 home record in 2021, the Giants continue to be a good bet against a Diamondbacks team that is 9-29 on the road and currently on a -wait for it- TWELVE (12) GAME LOSING STREAK! Sure, we can dive into the fact that SF is shoving Anthony DeSclafani and his 3.09 ERA today… or the D Backs trotting out Merill Kelly with his 6.13 road ERA. However, the fact remains one of the best teams in the MLB is at home against a current bottom feeder tonight.
While anything can happen, the salivating value for the Giants to win by 2 runs or more with the way both teams have been playing, this play is too good to not give a shot.